NOAA: 2025 Hurricane Season Likely to Be 'Above Normal'

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has a 60% chance to produce an “above normal” number of named storms, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). 

Last week, acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm and National Weather Service director Ken Graham showed reporters modeling data and regional forecasts for the US Eastern seaboard for hurricane season. That’s the stretch of warmer days from June 1 to November 30. It often sees a higher number of storms. Based on current weather trends and past years’ data, NOAA predicts a 3 in 5 chance for a very active hurricane season. It could bring 13-19 named storms. Six to ten of those could strengthen to hurricane status. (That means sustained winds in excess of 74 miles per hour). 

The main reason for the “above normal” outlook: ever-rising ocean water temperatures. They strengthen storms. Those temps hit record highs in 2024. They show no signs of cooling. This has led to only a 30% chance of a “near-normal” storm season, with 8-14 named storms, including seven hurricanes. Just 10% of models predicted a “below-normal” season.

"In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to (track) the weather," Graham said in a written statement. "This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens." 

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season spawned 11 hurricanes. Five of those became “major” (sustained winds in excess of 111 mph). Hurricanes Helene and Milton were particularly destructive. They caused billions of dollars of damage throughout the US Southeast.

Reflect: What are some things people can do ahead of time to feel safer during extreme weather?