A La Niña Autumn? Forecasters Say a Cooldown May Be Coming to US

As the heat of the summer fades, weather experts are looking at their models to predict what the autumn months will bring.    

They believe the neutral weather pattern over the US likely will end and a La Niña pattern will take its place. But that’s not a sure thing. 

Two weather cycles generally rotate every three to five years. They are called La Niña and El Niño. La Niña typically cools the ocean waters in the Pacific and can bring cooler temps to the US. But that's not always true. Climate change continues to warm the planet, which can offset the effect. El Niño usually brings warmer temps. Since March, though, a neutral pattern has been in place.    

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said last week that there’s a 55% chance that ocean surface temperatures will cool to a La Niña level over the next couple of months. “For October to December 2025, the probability of La Niña conditions slightly increases to about 60%,” the WMO added. 

A number of sources look to the WMO’s forecast models for planning. They include farmers, energy companies, disaster services, and others.  

In some parts of the world, La Niña can mean the opposite of a cooling pattern. It can cause drought or heavy rains. That's especially true in the tropics.

Still, a La Niña autumn is not likely to break a cycle of high temps. Experts say climate change has made the past decade the hottest 10 years on record.      

Reflect: What’s a time when a change in the weather or season affected your mood, plans, or daily routine?